Project Lantern
Validating and shaping a UAE market-entry plan for a pre-launch coffee brand
Lantern began as an idea for a premium coffee brand in the United Arab Emirates. The founders, based outside the country, had a rough plan: source unroasted coffee beans themselves, export them from the country where they are grown, import them into the UAE, and have them roasted, blended and packed locally. They knew the market from their visits, but not in any detail. Before committing any budget, they wanted to know whether the idea made sense and, if it did, how a new brand should enter. They asked Folmia to help answer those questions. We identified the key assumptions the plan rested on, from the size of the market to the price the coffee could sell for, and built a market-entry study to test each one against the evidence.
Where they were
The founders had their own source of beans, a way to roast in Dubai without building a roastery at the start, and a sense that there was room for a premium brand made for local tastes, such as Arabic coffee blended with cardamom and saffron. But that view came mainly from instinct and visits. The plan rested on assumptions about the product, the buyers, the prices and the competition that had not yet been tested.
With a fixed launch budget, the early choices mattered. The founders needed to decide which product to lead with. The options ranged from Arabic coffee and roasted whole-bean or ground coffee to drip bags, instant coffee, gift boxes, or selling unroasted beans to cafés and other roasters. They also needed to decide how to position the brand, which customers to go after first and which sales channels to start with. The study was set up to give them evidence on each of these before any of the budget was spent.
What we did
1. Market sizing and structure
We began by confirming the founders' constraints, including their budget, bean supply, import route and roasting plans, so the analysis reflected what a business of their size could do. We then sized the market. Because the UAE is a trading hub, a large share of the coffee that arrives is shipped on to other countries. We used trade data to separate the coffee that is drunk locally from the coffee that passes through, and broke local consumption down by product type and type of buyer.
This gave the founders a clear picture of how the market is split and which parts of it a new brand could realistically compete in. That view helped them decide where to focus, and the rest of the study concentrated on that part of the market.
2. Pricing, competitor and cost review
We compared coffee prices on supermarket shelves across the main chains and reviewed the established local roasters, looking closely at how the leading ones position and price their coffee. We also worked out what it would cost the founders to bring a pack to market, starting from what they pay for their beans and adding shipping, import, roasting and packing costs, through to the shelf price needed in each sales channel.
This showed the founders what drives price in this market, where the existing brands sit, and what price range the evidence supports for a new brand. Comparing that range with their own costs showed whether the business would make money at that price in each sales channel.
3. Channel review and entry plan
We compared the main sales channels open to a new brand, including its own online store, online marketplaces and supermarket shelves, and worked out what it would cost to sell through each one. We then looked at the different ways the brand could enter the market and brought them together into a single plan that builds up in stages.
This showed how the founders could start small and keep early spending low. The first stage uses a small part of the budget to test whether customers come back and buy again, and each later stage depends on those results. The report also sets out the main decisions that remain for the founders to make.
Where they are now
Today, the founders have a findings report that answers each of the questions they started with. We took them through it in a walkthrough session and followed up afterwards with further analysis on points the discussion raised.
The study gave them an evidence-based view of the market they are considering: which parts of their original plan the evidence supports, which need rethinking, and what a version built on that evidence could look like, from the product and price to the order in which to open sales channels. The decision on whether and how to go ahead remains with the founders.
Strategy made tangible
- Brand refresh
- B2B marketing
- Strategic brand direction
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